Get ready to have a cold. Thats the message from doctors, immunologists, virologists and architects as England emerges from lockdown.
An amalgamation of 16 months cooped up inside, a culture of showing up to work despite sickness, and woefully outdated building infrastructure in the UK is set to become a pressure cooker for viruses. The country at large is about to experience the rush of a kind of post-lockdown Freshers Flu.
Never before in modern human history have we had global distancing, social distancing, mask wearing, quarantining and isolating, says Gregory Poland, head of the Vaccine Research Group at the Mayo Clinic in the US. Its going to be an interesting experiment of nature to see what happens when you stop the circulation of those viruses for a season.
Like Covid, colds are spread through inhaling droplets from the air, and also by touch. Under normal circumstances, the average adult has between two and four colds a year, while children have between six and eight. These move easily between people and can be contagious for up to two weeks after symptoms appear.
Pre-pandemic, our bodies were often exposed to viral respiratory pathogens. Sometimes these made us sick, and other times they boosted our immune responses. But lockdowns, increased hand washing, and masks may have dulled this risk and left a hole in our natural defences.
The hygiene hypothesis posits that early exposure to a variety of germs builds better immunity for life. As such, evidence suggests children who are exposed to lots of different microbes are less likely to develop allergies and autoimmune disorders. Bodies remember responses to viruses and bacteria, and are able to mobilise and protect us against them. Our immune systems may struggle with new, cold-causing viruses in circulation, though, meaning we will still get sick, but the immune response will still know how to fight it even after lockdowns.
There are, however, other variables to consider. Whether you are getting enough vitamin D, are stressed, or have been particularly lonely could also factor into your anti-viral response. An analysis of studies monitoring more than 300,000 people found that people who are more socially connected are 50 per cent less likely to die over a given period. Research has also shown that people with lots of social ties are even less susceptible to the common cold. Stress, which produces cortisol, also harms immune function.
Rates of colds in the UK are difficult to track; they rarely cause hospitalisations, and people are encouraged to ride them out rather than visiting their GP. However, scientists can make a good guess at what is set to hit the northern hemisphere due to patterns happening in the south. Australia has already seen a resurgence of respiratory illnesses other than Covid, as have parts of the US.
In the US, numbers of cases of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) a type of virus that infects the lungs and commonly causes hospitalisations in children have headed upwards in recent weeks, with around 1,600 confirmed cases nationally in the week of July 17, and 2,000 the week before. In the week of 25 July a year ago there were only 11 RSV cases recorded by the Centers for Disease Control (CDC).
Similarly in Australia, a surge in RSV cases was seen in spring in states such as New South Wales and Western Australia, followed by rising rates in Queensland and Victoria. They were at an all-time low throughout the Australian winter.
The Royal Australian College of General Practitioners warned that, as in Australia, relaxing of Covid restrictions may provide an opportunity for rapid spread of RSV. Our experience should serve as a warning for paediatric hospitals in the Northern Hemisphere to ensure adequate staffing and available resources to meet the possible increased need, it wrote.
Add in pressure to attend the office even when people are feeling unwell, and youve got a recipe for transmission. A report from the ADP Research Institute showed that, during the pandemic, more than half (54 per cent) of employees globally have felt pressure from their employer to come into work at some point, even though the official line has been to stay home.
Meanwhile, the government has repeatedly encouraged a return to offices for non-essential workers in-between lockdowns, trading off trying to reignite the economy and get people back into Pret a Mangers with the risk of breathing new life into Covid caseloads.
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Your immune system is not ready for the office - Wired.co.uk
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