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Johnson & Johnson still faces troubles over its Invokana diabetes drug. (Kadmy-Fotolia/stock.adobe.com)

Johnson & Johnson's (JNJ) diabetes drug, Invokana, cut down on cardiovascular events during a long-termstudy but Eli Lilly (LLY) stands to benefit most asdoctors steer clear of the medication on worries it increased the risk of amputation.

The study, dubbed Canvas, was presented late Monday. In it, Dow stock Johnson & Johnson said Invokana reduced the risk of cardiovascular death, nonfatal heart attack and nonfatal stroke by 14% vs. a non-drug placebo.

Additional analysis showed that Invokana lowered the risk of hospitalization for heart failure by 33%. Invokana also delayedthe progression of albuminuria the presence of a specific chemical in the urine indicating kidney disease.

RBC analyst Glenn Novarro says the Canvas study is unlikely to reverse the negative trajectory of Invokana sales. In the first quarter, Invokana and Invokamet sales dropped 17% year over year. For 2017, Novarro forecasts a 6% dip in sales to $1.2 billion.

Eli Lilly, on the other hand, will benefit from Johnson & Johnson's study as Merck (MRK) trails, analysts say.Lilly's Jardiance is a SGLT2 inhibitor, which works by helping the kidneys to lower blood glucose levels. Merck's Januvia is a DPP-4, which blocks glucagon release, triggering insulin secretion.

"Validated cardiovascular benefits should boost the SGLT2 class," Credit Suisse analyst Vamil Divan wrote. In a similar study, Lilly's Jardiance also showed a 14% benefit on cardiovascular outcomes. Jardiance also cut the risk of cardiovascular death and all mortality.

Even without the Canvas study, Lillywaspoised to grab a chunk of Invokana's sales after the Food and Drug Administration required Johnson & Johnson to warn physicians of the potential for amputation associated with Invokana.Invokana doubled the risk of amputation in a recent study.

Experts cited by Leerink analyst Seamus Fernandez say the amputation worry could be the "biggest differentiating factor" in physicians' decision to prescribe Jardiance over Invokana, as both show a similar cardiovascular benefit in diabetes patients.

At the close on the stock market today, Johnson & Johnson stock ticked up 0.2% to finish the regular trading session at 132.02. Lilly stock added 0.4% to 81.25 and shares of diabetes drugmaker Merck dipped 1% to end the day at 63.27.

IBD'S TAKE:Johnson & Johnson stock has an IBD Composite Rating of 77, meaning it outperforms more than three-quarters of all stocks in terms of key growth metrics. For more of IBD's ratings visit IBD Stock Checkup.

Meanwhile, the DPP-4 class of diabetes drugs, which includes Merck's Januvia, could face incremental pressure, Credit Suisse's Divan said.

"Over time, however, we expect the enthusiastic response to the Canvas efficacy data driving use of the SGLT2 class earlier in the course of treatment, while concurrently pushing the DPP-4s further back," he said in a note to clients.

Merck and Pfizer (PFE), a Dow stock, are jointly working on an SGLT2 inhibitor called ertugliflozin.Regulators could approve the drug in December, but it won't have data on cardiovascular outcomes for several years.Pfizer will take a chunk of thosesales, meaning a shift from Januvia toertugliflozin will be a net negative for Merck.

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Original post:
Dow's J&J Hosted A Diabetes Study And Lilly Will Benefit Most - Investor's Business Daily

This entry was posted on June 14, 2017 at 12:48 am and is filed under Diabetes. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed. |